America’s Clarifying Moment

A midterms roundup: The stakes, the growing impact of Hispanic voters and what to look for on election night

This yard sign has popped up in the last two days in my New York neighborhood. (Photo by Steven Beschloss)

This is a clarifying moment in the life of our country. Existence is morally complex and deserves to be observed and engaged with nuance. But this political moment—this midterm election—requires a loud and clear repudiation of Donald Trump, the Republicans who have enabled him and his MAGA movement.

The stakes of this election could not be more obvious. We’re looking at the survival of liberal democracy, taking a last stand for our Constitution, preventing the destruction of the rule of law by a corrupt traitor and his complicit operatives.

So it’s outrageous that Michigan Rep. Haley Stevens—who lost her primary for Senate to Abdul El-Sayed in August—threw her support to Republican candidate Mike Rogers. Her betrayal was ostensibly about her differing views from El-Sayed about Israel. But in so doing, the narcissistic Stevens has shown she is willing to risk the Democrats losing Michigan—a state which could decide control of the Senate—and help Trump and the Republicans’ hold onto maximum power.

And she dares to claim she’s still a proud Democrat.

I’m not convinced that Stevens’ betrayal will ultimately make a difference in whether the progressive El-Sayed wins the race that he is currently leading. And if El-Sayed triumphs, Stevens can kiss her political career goodbye. Either way, cries of “Benedict Arnold” will long be heard when her name is mentioned.

Look to the Hispanic vote

But as we head toward election day tomorrow—I almost can’t believe we’re finally here—there’s a much bigger story than this internecine warfare in Michigan. And that’s the rise of the Hispanic vote around the country.

As of yesterday, Hispanic and Latino Americans are voting early in record numbers: Compared with 2022, there’s been a 78 percent surge in the bloc and a 43 percent of their share of the total vote. The numbers are even more striking when looking at the raw growth totals state by state. Check out a sampling of data highlighted by Democratic strategist and Hopium Chronicles newsletter author Simon Rosenberg:

• Minnesota: +332 percent

• Maryland: +262 percent

• Indiana: 175 percent

• Michigan: +213 percent

• Ohio: +213 percent

• North Carolina: +151 percent

• New York: +154 percent

• Colorado: +73 percent

• Texas: +80 percent

• Arizona: +27 percent

• Florida: +32 percent

This is a voting population that swung strongly toward Donald Trump in 2024. Trump won 42 percent of that vote, including 47 percent of Hispanic men, a record high for Republicans.

That was before Trump demonstrated his utter indifference to affordability issues and his sadistic, lawlessness deportation operation. As Pew Research has noted, 93 percent of Latinos who voted for Trump in 2024 approved of his job performance in February just after he was elected. Now, just 57 percent do. And among all registered Latino voters, those approvals have crashed from 38 percent to 24 percent.

And don’t think this voting group’s impact is marginal. There are some 39 million eligible Hispanic voters, representing 16 percent of voting-age citizens.

As The New York Times recently reported, Hispanic voters comprise at least 20 percent of registered voters in nearly two dozen “highly competitive House races.” Among them: Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Pennsylvania and Texas. Speaking of Texas, 2.1 million Hispanic people have already voted there; their votes could decide that Senate race, as well as other critical races in historically red Kansas and Iowa.

So as the returns start coming in tomorrow and we learn what the exit polls are telling us, pay attention to the Hispanic votes. They will help determine whether we as a nation repudiate Trump and the MAGA Republicans, and stop this lawless regime’s pursuit of power, unfettered by law or human decency.

How the votes will roll in

Speaking of tracking the returns—and particularly getting an early sense on whether a big blue wave is coming—here’s a brief primer on how this will unfold tomorrow night:

6 p.m. ET: Polls in Kentucky and Indiana close. If Democrats are close in Kentucky’s 6th Congressional district and Indiana’s 5th district after some of the election day numbers are counted, that’s a good sign.

7 p.m. ET: Polls in Florida, Virginia and South Carolina close. Could Annie Andrews beat Darline Graham for South Carolina’s senate seat? Even a close race would portend well for the rest of the country, as would Democrat wins in the GOP gerrymandered 9th, 14th, 22nd and 25th districts.

7:30 p.m. ET: Polls in Ohio and North Carolina close. Both states have significant early voting, which will favor Democrats. Watch for Ohio’s Sherrod Brown and North Carolina’s Roy Cooper to hold onto their leads as the evening progresses. We’ll also soon find out if Vivek Ramaswamy’s sickening ad helped bury him in his race for governor against Amy Acton.

8 p.m. ET: Get ready for most of the polls in Texas, Michigan, Kansas and Maine to close. As much as 80 percent of Texas’ total is from the early vote, so look for James Talarico to have a solid lead of five points or so to hold off a strong Republican election day surge. It will take time to know whether Troy Jackson will finally take down Susan Collins in Maine, which can be slow in reporting, but the other states’ results will come more rapidly. That includes potential Democratic wins by Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan and Adam Hamilton in Kansas.

9 p.m. ET: Twelve states close their polls, including New York, Iowa, Wisconsin, Colorado and Minnesota. High on my watch lists here: Iowa Democrat Josh Turek flipping the Senate seat and New York’s pro-Trump congressman Mike Lawler possibly losing to Democrat Cait Conley in the 17th district. Both would be important bellwethers for the scale of a Democratic victory.

10 p.m. and 11 p.m. ET: Polls close in California, Montana, Nevada and Washington. The Republicans think they can beat centrist Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez in Washington’s 3rd district with a Navy veteran and state senate minority leader in John Braun, but not if the Democratic surge is tsunami-level.

Midnight ET: Alaska’s polls close. But don’t expect to find out the fate of Democrat Mary Peltola agains the two Dan Sullivans anytime soon in this ranked choice voting system. And, if we’re lucky, Trump’s shameful demand to not certify the election if it’s close—a lawsuit tossed out by a federal judge yesterday—won’t have any effect on whether the Democrats take over the Senate.

This ain’t just another horse race

This is the point in the election season when it’s hard not to get caught up in the horse race aspect of these proceedings. Of course, who’s winning and who’s losing is everything.

But I’m going to be watching the returns a little differently this year. Because this is the moment when we find out whether our fellow Americans really are committed to putting an end to the reckless destruction, the ceaseless corruption, the lawless abuse of our democracy and the utter indifference to the people’s struggle to survive.

I’d like to say we’ll have that answer Tuesday night. But we can be sure that the felon in the White House will do everything he can to subvert the people’s will in the days and weeks that follow. But the bigger the totals are, the harder it will be for him and his thugs to rig the outcome.

The weeks leading up to Jan. 3, when the new Congress convenes, may require our collective power to combat the regime’s refusal to accept the results. I can’t overstate how much I yearn for a massive MAGA defeat and a full-throated disavowal of the man and the party that has led this decade-long assault.

May patriotism reign.

A programming note for midterms week: I On Tuesday at 5 p.m. ET, I will be going live on Substack with journalist and media critic Mark Jacob. Then on Thursday at 10 a.m. ET, I will be joined by special guest Mary Trump for a live episode of Six Questions with Steven Beschloss. I hope to see you there.

In the months ahead, the fight for democracy will continue. I remain committed to raising my voice as vividly and fiercely as I can. I hope you’ll consider becoming a paid subscriber for just $50 a year or $5 a month to show your support and enhance your engagement—to share your thoughts in the comments sections and access all content.