Texas, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa, Kansas. Every one of these typically sends Republicans to Congress. Yet this year every one of these are looking at the the growing likelihood that they can or will elect Democratic senators. To win back the Senate majority, Democrats need to flip four Republican-held seats.
No Democrat has won a U.S. Senate seat in Texas since 1988 (Lloyd Bentsen was re-elected that year). No Democrat has won statewide office in Texas since 1994. But a new New York Times/Sienna University poll of likely voters conducted between Sept. 21 and Oct. 1 found Democrat James Talarico leading Ken Paxton 51 to 45 percent.
The last Democrat to win a Senate seat in Alaska was Mark Begich in 2008. The Times/Sienna poll has Democrat Mary Peltola at 50 percent to the Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan’s 43 percent. In Ohio, which has been shifting right over the last decade (Trump won the state by about 11 percentage points) Democrat Sherrod Brown is leading Republican incumbent Jon Husted 49 to 46 percent in the same poll. As for Iowa, which Trump won by 13 percentage points, Democrat Josh Turek and Republican Ashley Hinson are neck-and-neck with 47 percent to 48 percent, respectively.
And then there’s Kansas, where the last time a Democrat won a U.S. senate seat is a jaw-dropping 94 years ago when George McGill was reelected in 1932. Trump won Kansas by more than 16 percentage points in 2024. Yet Democrat Adam Hamilton and incumbent incumbent Republican Roger Marshall are tied at 45 percent. Even long-time, high-profile Republicans in Kansas, such as former Gov. Bill Graves, are backing the centrist Hamilton over the Trumpist Marshall.
While doubters could claim the Times/Sienna polling is an outlier, they would be wrong. A collection of other polls, including the Fox/Beacon & Shaw polling, have found similar trends. The race for Senate in Maine, in which Democrat Troy Jackson is aiming to finally unseat long-time incumbent Susan Collins, is currently tied.
Yes, polls can be wrong. I know that the trauma of previous Democratic losses (Hillary, Kamala) causes Democrats to doubt what their eyes and minds are telling them. But we are exactly one month from the Nov. 3 midterms—and the hard work on the ground by committed supporters to get these candidates elected matters. The trends are not shifting away from the Democrats.
Quite the contrary. Gas and food prices are not going to suddenly drop down. The intransigent and mentally untethered Trump is not going to suddenly exit Iran, discover that affordability issues are real or end his idiotic tariff agenda that has turned long-time friends like Canada into adversaries and created unnecessary economic uncertainty. Nor is he about to curtail his relentless, repulsive corruption (which got a new addition with reporting that Trump henchmen Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff are negotiating a multibillion-dollar oil deal with Vladimir Putin).
Yes, despite the prospects for a seismic Democratic victory in the midterms that results in Democratic majorities in the House and Senate, there’s always reason to wonder and worry whether the habitual party tribalism will lead Republicans to return to the fold. But Trump’s historic disapproval ratings provide a clear sign that Americans are not going to suddenly forget their strong discontent, indeed anger, with this man’s failures and the direction he’s taken the country. In fact, nearly two-thirds of the electorate think the country is on the wrong track.
So, have typically unthinkable wins become thinkable? Are there races about which you are particularly hopeful will flip to the Democrats? What race for the House and the Senate are you watching closely? What candidates are you supporting with your dollars or your time and energy?
As always, I look forward to reading your observations and the opportunity for the America, America community to hear from each other. Please be respectful in your remarks. Trolling will not be tolerated.
As we head to the midterms, it’s more important than ever to support the survival of democracy. I remain committed to raising my voice as vividly and fiercely as I can. I hope you’ll consider becoming a paid subscriber for just $50 a year or $5 a month to show your support and enhance your engagement—to share your thoughts in the comments sections and access all content.
Dr. Annie Andrews winning the SC senate seat is going to be the best surprise of the night!
I support Sherrod Brown. It’s not much, but I give him $5 a month.