How 1864 May Decide the 2024 Election
The passage of a near total abortion ban in Arizona is a horror for women and women's reproductive health—and will be a battle cry for change in November
There are days when finding a silver lining in the news is a serious challenge. Tuesday was one of those days after learning that the Arizona Supreme Court made it possible for the Republican-led state legislature to enforce an 1864 law that almost totally bans abortion, even in cases of rape and incest, except to save the life of the mother.
It was the latest among increasingly draconian legislation in America that denies women their fundamental reproductive rights and criminalizes doctors who aid abortions. How mad is this? The law dates to a time when women could not vote, the Civil War was raging, the territory of Arizona would not be a state for another 48 years—and the medical science of reproduction was poorly understood.
Of course, Donald Trump has been proudly boasting about being the president who ended Roe v. Wade, calling it just yesterday “an incredible thing, a great achievement.” He was the one who appointed three Supreme Court justices who claimed that they accepted Roe as settled law in their nomination hearings, then took their first chance to strip away a right women have counted on for half a century. Yesterday he was crowing about states rights, pretending that he would not pass a national ban if given the chance (then insisted the Arizona law goes too far, in yet another opportunistic move without an iota of actual conviction).
Yes, the Arizona case is infuriating and dispiriting (especially since Arizona is the state where both of my daughters grew up). But by listening to the Democratic leadership in Arizona—that includes Gov. Katie Hobbs, Attorney General Kris Mayes and U.S. Sen. Mark Kelly—I was reminded that this appalling decision will motivate women voters and everyone who cares about ensuring basic freedoms. A ballot initiative was already gaining steam to enshrine access to abortion in the Arizona state constitution: Its backers have already collected over half a million signatures, over 120,000 more than they need to get the measure on November’s ballot.
As much as this awful decision is a setback for the state and the health of pregnant women, it represents a vivid call to action for voters who don’t want Republican politicians deciding what women can do with their own bodies.
This ban, Hobbs said, “is extreme and hurts women…As governor, I will do everything in my power to protect women’s reproductive freedoms.”
Hobbs noted the executive order she issued last year that gives the state attorney general discretion over prosecuting anyone charged with the “crime” of pursuing an abortion. AG Mayes has made clear that she will not prosecute any abortion case.
“No woman or doctor will be prosecuted under this law as long as I am attorney general,” Mayes said Tuesday. “Not by me, nor by any county attorney serving in our state, not on my watch.”
Mayes also weighed in on the political implications. “I think this was a seismic decision, and maybe not in the way Republicans thought it was going to be for Arizona politics and the election in November," she said. "I think this changes everything. I think it supercharges the ballot initiative and it supercharges the elections of all pro-choice candidates.”
Also on Tuesday, Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly expressed both his sadness and anger toward Trump and others who made this “disastrous” moment possible. This 160-year-old law, Kelly said, “is only being reinstated now because of politicians who worked to overturn Roe v. Wade. In fact, in the Supreme Court ruling today, it mentioned the Dobbs decision 22 times. This is devastating for Arizona women…I refuse to allow Arizona to become a state where doctors are going to be afraid to practice, to just do their jobs.”
While GOP extremists are rejoicing the arrival of this cruel law that will cause unnecessary suffering and medical danger for Arizona women and their families involved in the most private of decisions, you can be sure there are plenty of Republicans who have grasped that their chance of holding onto the U.S. House, taking the U.S. Senate and regaining the presidency just got more difficult.
Consider election-denying, Trump-adoring, gubernatorial-losing extremist Kari Lake who is now running for outgoing Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s seat. Two years ago she called abortion “the ultimate sin” and the 1864 law “a great law.” Tuesday she was cravenly backtracking: “I speak to more Arizonans than anyone and it is abundantly clear that the pre-statehood law is out of step with Arizonans.”
Think Lake just heard the door closing on her chances of winning her Senate race against Marine Corps veteran, Harvard grad and progressive Democrat Rep. Ruben Gallego? I do.
In states where abortion access was put on the ballot since Roe v. Wade was overturned, voters strongly approved of securing this freedom. That includes conservative states like Kansas and Ohio.
We should expect that Arizonans will overwhelmingly pass the “Arizona for Abortion Access Initiative” ballot measure this fall—and come out to vote in record numbers. The impact will be felt up and down the ballot. Nearly a dozen other states have proposed or secured abortion-related ballot initiatives this fall, including Florida, Missouri, New York and Maryland.
The likely outcome is good for democracy. But the road between here and there remains a nasty and ugly one with real consequences in the lives of women, families and the physicians and health clinics seeking to provide support.
Every time you hear a Republican cheer for laws like these that ignore the people’s will and inflict real harm, remember this is just one example of the cruel and backward direction they’re dreaming of taking our public and private lives. It’s a future that is not inevitable if enough voters show up in November.
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Thank you Steven!
This situation will drive or should, ALL women to vote out R’s up AND down the ballot. In Dobbs, Alito opined women have electoral power. R’s WILL find out.
Women are not stupid; enough with R’s ‘cruelty is the point’ politics. The R’s are like the dog who caught the car, now they’re doing a deserved electoral ‘Thelma & Louise’ with the car. Choice in November is clear: Biden or Dictatorship!
As horrific as Republican legislators are, both federal and state, it seems the judicial ones are worse. They act with impunity. I regret what the women of Arizona will have to endure for the next six months, but in November republicans in Arizona will learn that actions have consequences. In the meantime they need to remember what the likes of Kari Lake has said in the past, not what she’s saying now. Remember what trump has said in the past, “there needs to be some kind of punishment.”
To quote a post from a friend on Facebook, Roevember!