I trust women to come out to stop him. I trust young people that they want something different. I think that the polls are being manipulated to raise my blood pressure. But I am optimistic that we will have a blue wave. I am buying treats to celebrate when Tom Cruz loses in Texas...
and men & fathers, brothers, grandfathers, uncles and male friends of all women. We need men to stand with us as well and I truly believe they are there.
It’s white men that worry me. I’m one, but as you say, a friend of women and young people. I so hope you are right. Thanks, John Crane. I’m gonna have another coffee and bask for a moment in your positivity.
It really shouldn't be close at all. There is NO choice for reasonable people. An articulate, intelligent, conscientious, energetic, successful person with a vision for moving America forward in excellent ways VS. a convicted felon who instigated a lethal insurrection against the country/Constitution he took an oath to protect as well as defying the espionage act with the theft of top secret documents and who has nothing to offer America except cozying up to dictators, advancement of white supremacy, division and tax cuts for the very wealthy.
During Democrats, lower and middle class increase standard of living. During Republicans, billionaires become richer and lower and middle class Americans needs are ignored. That's a fact!
Imagine wearing these kinds of shirts in a red state 👇 🤣
I will be working to stop Trump. However I have no confidence that he will lose this election. John, my blood pressure is sufficiently high enough to cover both of us. Insofar as Ted Cruz is concerned there are too many of my fellow Texans who are so completely brainwashed that his quest to be able to physically “roll in the dough” will likely come to fruition.
I am deeply concerned that a good portion of the electorate is so infected with nativism, sexism and racism that they want to return an insurrectionist and convicted felon to office. I keep getting these messages from the Harris campaign about how they’re being outspent in key states. By any logical measure, Trump should be toast, but I think a good portion of the electorate has become unhinged from logic. I don’t know why they’re so frustrated, given that inflation has dropped to pre-pandemic levels and the current economic stats are way better than the Morning in America years. Maybe they feel unsettled but it’s sickening they would opt for someone who would make it infinitely worse. I’m not gonna breathe easy until Harris wins and gets sworn into office and the putative insurrectionists are rendered harmless.
The basic issue is the electoral college. Gives outsize power to an angry minority who hates migrants, is suspicious of the rest of the country, and who thinks the govt is out to get them. Again. Hillary won the popular vote. We're being controlled by a unhinged radical minority re the Presidency.
Yes, the EC is a problem. On the other hand, I think it is a disservice to the Harris campaign for there to be so much emphasis on comparing it to HRC. Hillary’s campaign failed to invest in swing states, the ‘blue wall’. Her campaign took them for granted even though many of those voters blamed NAFTA for their troubles. The campaign skipped over the usual early activities on the ground relying on her name recognition and it being a ‘base turnout’ election. Ignored labor unions & reports percolating up from the field that support was fading. Ex: SEIU began sending their workers assigned in Iowa (where there wasn’t a snowball’s chance of carrying the state) to Michigan. It was told to keep them in IA to fool the trump campaign into spending $$ there. (It was lost by almost 10 points. I suspect the trump campaign had its own polling.) Some surrogates popular in Mich were not allowed to campaign there. It was November when Obama was brought in.
The 2 campaigns resemble one another because at the top of the Dem ticket we have a woman. The electorate has changed over the past 8-9 years. The DNC has changed. Harris is a different candidate.
I have a lot of optimism because the Harris campaign is covering the bases. It inherited a ground game and legal preparations & has built on it. The changes in strategy have modernized the campaign. She has enthusiasm on her side which seems to scare trump. We can see it reflected in trump’s rhetoric - darker and more incoherent.
Absolutely on point Ann! Your recounting of the failures in 2016 is accurate as well. We begged them to step it up in Wisconsin etc but “the Five” as we called them just refused. Harris’ campaign is just the opposite and the polls ignore 18s to 29s because they can’t reach them. Those voters plus women nationwide recognize the dangers of a nationwide abortion ban and will vote overwhelmingly as well as Black voters who are being motivated by the Divine Nine! Thank you for your commitment! Please donate now to www.TurnUp.com!
Thanks. 18-21 also have no voting record in presidential elections and 18-19 year olds didn’t vote in the midterms. IOW, they can’t be considered “likely” voters which are typically the more reliable type of polling. In atypical elections like we have these days pollsters are guessing who will vote. So add in the difficulty in reaching young people.
Then there is the newer world of betting on elections. After Nate Silver’s bizarrely wrong election predictions in the midterm he left 538 to go out on his own but is still called a ‘guru’. It appears he has more than a small incentive to manipulate polling results.
Polymarket is a gambling site whose startup had a big infusion of $$ from Peter Thiel:
—“Feels like it should be a bigger deal that Nate Silver is employed by Polymarket, a site that allows you to bet on political outcomes, and also runs a “prediction model” that has the ability to directly affect betting behavior,” journalist Brett Meiselas on X.—
Yes, they may be watching. It’s anybody’s guess if they will be motivated to vote. They have no track record & historically have high nonvoter rates. In that age group, there’s very little memory of DJT’s administration or how abnormal it was. It makes the ground game even more important. We can hope they are in ‘swing states’ and that if they took the trouble to register will also vote.
Winner take all and somehow diverting the idea that the Electoral is a backstop to electing incompetent individuals, like Trump. I think it is rather like us being frogs in boiling water.
My blood pressure is elevated to at the thought of Trump in the WH. How it can be so close is mind boggling. I wouldn’t need to see one add or press conference to know that I would vote for Harris! Anything to keep Trump out of office! It doesn’t even matter about policy at this point!! I would hate to see what our country oils look like should be get in. I think Harris will win and I hope it is a landslide but what scares means keeps me awake at night is the cheating and voter suppression and intimidation that will take place. If anyone can seriously listen to trump at his rallies and his interviews and think he’s fit to lead this country is a bigger fool than I ever thought possible!
Regarding inflation, they want prices to return to pre-pandemic levels. The ‘concept’ the trump campaign pushes as proof the economy isn’t improving. My question remains: How much are they willing to give up for the promise of cheaper eggs?
I'm on a fixed income so inflation cooling only means prices won't get worse. That is why some are still complaining but contrary to what I read in the media Harris has articulated plans to deal with price gouging and help the middle class. T has nothing except lowering taxes on the wealthy ... his plan raised my taxes ... tariffs that will be passed along to consumers, and deporting immigrants which will increase costs as well. I remember fruit rotting during his last term and some produce being scarce until they imported the items from South America.
I'm concerned about recent polls but feel like somethings fishy. Why would his numbers increase now? It makes no sense. I'm worried but I believe there's a silent majority that will come out for Harris!
I think it's more than just being unsettled. There's a significant portion of voters who are trying to live in an alternate reality. So whenever something happens that forces reality into their consciousness (like a hurricane), it's got to be a conspiracy. "They" are trying to get us.
I'm not optimistic at all about the election. Even if VP Harris gets elected, Congress is almost certain to be divided, and we'll end up in a morass similar to the one we suffer now. And if she is not elected, that morass will be quicksand.
I agree with your assessment of the situation. I just can’t take it anymore. I don’t have confidence in the disaffected to do the right thing and vote against a Fascist government. Republican voters have a long history with voting against their best interests and I think that’s why pundits keep saying this election is very close.
I can’t fathom a Trump win. The questions are: What do we do if Trump DOES win? How do we continue on with our lives knowing that this mentally ill and cognitively impaired person is in the most powerful position in the world? How do we continue on knowing that the people he will surround himself with are more fanatical than he? How can we go on knowing that we may never be able to vote again and that we will become the victims of a Christian Nationalist regime? How do we go about our everyday lives knowing that each day can mean another freedom may be lost, and/or subject to the whims of a vengeful dictator? I do not believe that Trump will be a dictator ON Day One…he will be a dictator FROM Day One. I find myself wondering how the people of Russian and North Korea go about their daily lives with any joy at all.
My husband was a toddler in occupied France during WWII, when he father was part of the French Resistance…and yet he remembers his folks telling him not to say who was coming to the house to visit. Neighbors spied on neighbors, and sometimes settled grudges by telling the Nazis that their neighbors were anti-German. That’s how it was.
Alan Lichtman, who wrote, “The Keys to the White House” and who correctly predicted 9 out of 10 presidential elections (he missed Bush V Gore because the Supreme Court decided the election) has said that Kamala Harris will win this election. I hope and pray he will be right one more time.
Please be confident that this campaign is far better run and executed than both 2016 and 2020 yet we won the popular vote in both years! He is so terrified of the consequences to him criminally when he loses that while he is a lunatic at this point, he will only grow worse in the next weeks so the next insurrection will become more apparent and more dangerous even before Nov5! That will seal his defeat and Joe will handle the consequences of the insurrection! Big differences from Jan6!
I share your fears and hope Harris wins because those who would still vote for someone like Trump have no idea what it means to live in a dictatorship like Russia or North Korea. End of press freedom, probably the Supreme Court ( no loss there), loss of bodily autonomy and the right to vote for more than one party. The list goes on and on.
I try to be optimistic but I am terrified. I find it unbelievable that half of the American voters can vote for such a despicable, incompetent, dangerous man. I literally cannot sleep due to anxiety.
I am hopeful! This is not 2016. I awoke that morning and told my husband, "This feels like Christmas morning." We know how that turned out. Harris and Walz are running a brilliant campaign. Women, young voters and mentally stable men will support her.
In spite of the main media's alarming lying and dogged following of the dog whistle for so long. It is the truth that is lying beneath that has captured the prominent Republicans and others. There is Kamala's innovative campaigning on platforms that, honestly, I am unaware of, but which speaks of a deep strategy to win.
I have been vacationing for the first time in 6 years, in Michigan's Upper Peninsula. There are many Trump signs in this sparsely populated land that used to tilt Democratic because of mines and unions and now does not. But along the road...Harris-Trump signs!
I think there are voters not captured by the pollsters who do not seem to have caught up with the changes in our electorate and modes of communication. I hope that many pollsters and the MSM will have egg on their faces.
I am hopeful, and yes, optimistic, that it will be President Harris. I am hopeful that truth will prevail.
Thank you, Steven, for doing your part in amplifying truth.
I don't put much stock in polls until I know the following:
Who paid for it?
Where was it done?
How many people did they poll?
What questions were asked?
Whom did they ask?
Call me suspicious or paranoid, but I wouldn't put it beyond Trump, MAGAts, the GOP, Musk, Putin, or Corporate Media to be screwing with our heads this late in the game to make us think Trump is doing so well the needle has barely moved for Harris. I call BS.
Yes, polling can be misleading including how questions are asked & the margin of error. It’s a snapshot and we don’t know the limits of the lens. The midterms come to mind with its last minute flurry of trumpy false polling.
I saw a note on substack dissecting polling results by someone posing as very knowledgeable about data. I pointed out pollsters have their own biases and when there are unknown incentives, like monetary incentive as with Nate Silver, they can be deliberately skewed. (https://www.salon.com/2024/09/06/nate-silver-faces-backlash-for-pro-model-skewing/ )
He responded:
• “Do polls reflect public opinion? Yes, with the caveat that there is indeterminate levels of bias on the part of the pollster which will influence the results.“
Closed his lengthy lecture with …
• “And by pushing poll data that shows Trump doing well, we can counter efforts to move the public opinion needle towards Kamala Harris.“
Pick your poll. Personally I tend to believe polling more on attitudes toward candidates. Harris has done well with that. Getting those votes in the ballot box is the crucial part.
Rasmussen leans toward the conservative end of the spectrum.
I am trying to be optimistic, but I remember feeling both incredulous and sick in 2016. We became active in our local Democratic Party after the disaster of 2016, and continue to support it and its candidates.
We donate to Democratic campaigns up and down the ballot, and help with mailings, though we are not ones to participate in canvassing, especially in this very rural, red (unfortunately) area. I'm not sure how safe that would be.
There are a few Harris/Walz signs around, but also reports of them being stolen or vandalized. The irony of this seems to be lost on the party of 'law and order' that has as its candidate a convicted felon (x 34).
When we took our completed mail-in ballots to our courthouse, there was a man ahead of us who asked the clerk how "illegal immigrants" (his words) were being prevented from voting. She patiently explained the process of needing a valid driver's license or Social Security number. He replied that these could be faked and asked his question a second time. She suggested that he call the state, after which he muttered to himself, seemingly dissatisfied, and marched out -- another Fox/OAN/Newsmax watcher, evidently. So that seems to be the pervasive mindset around here.
I'm hoping that Democratic support in this area is just keeping a low profile. But I am not sleeping well. We won't survive another four years of tffg, and even if he eventually goes away, the forces that have supported him will not.
My state has Amendment 3 on the ballot to make abortion legal in Missouri. There is a strong PAC with deep pockets (including the KC Chiefs owner and possibly the St. Louis Archdiocese) funding tons of signs and banners to vote No. I can’t drive a mile in east Central Missouri without seeing one of these. This group is also funding tracts that are getting passed out IN CHURCHES that include disinformation. Letters to the Editor in the paper are nasty. There is a growing progressive group trying to counteract, but it’s tough to not get a sick feeling seeing all the Trump and No to 3 signs. I plan to either spend the day Election Day either hanging at the Botanical Gardens or the zoo in St. Louis, then a movie for my mental preservation. I’ve done postcards, LTE, signs, Post-Its, and wearing shirts, but I am easily stressed by nature, and ugly “Christianity” has my blood pressure shooting high. As a progressive Christian, I don’t know how much fight I have left.
If there was a care button to choose from, I would have. Do you read Jess Piper's Substack? She's from Missouri. Crossing my fingers that it passes. Wish we had the choice to vote for it in Iowa.
I am optimistic BUT the polls turn my stomach. I remind myself every time I see the hysterical headlines of the "polls say tfg is close etc etc" As I have said countless times.. who truly answers/responds to these polls? My phone scans all calls & it won't ring if it doesn't recognize the number. I have countless times tried to fill out the polls on-line and when I get to the end I must "pay" to be counted. Proving my theory they are only in it for the money & clicks. DNC just now texted/emailed me stating I didn't finish the poll... seriously?
I'm with you. I block them all now. The corporate media can't be trusted. If she wins we need congress too or nothing will get done. Then idiots complain that nothing gets done as they vote away what is in their best interests down ballot. We have become a soft country with the baggage of ignorance on our backs.
They have not passed the life saving bills needed without the Democrats to push it forward. We must have Congress, which is as important as the presidential race. Vote Dem down the entire ticket, and furthermore how is our government allowing Trump to interfere with Congress, is that not a crime also?
Yes I feel the same way. I don’t answer the emails asking who I’m voting for because 1) I don’t want my email out there to thousands who this polling site will sell it too and 2) they always ask for money. I e donated more this election than I ever have in the past and the emails constantly asking for more gets really tiresome!
Those fundraiser emails pretending to be serious polls are annoying.
I’m starting to get similar ones from the trump campaign — and one from Cruz begging for $$. Now that is the mark of true desperation. They must be too cheap to get voter registration lists & rely on zip codes or random email lists from who knows where.
I get the anxiety type, queasy feeling in my belly when I move from the here and now and think about electing day. No matter how much faith I have in our candidates, nothing about this election, the Republican candidates, or the republican voters is normal. The Republican Party has never been more evil.
I may be naively optimistic, I dream of a HUGE BLUE WAVE!!! On good days I see it clearly. On not so good days, I am fearful. The world is watching us. They are hopeful but not naive. They have seen dictators before. This election is more important than any event the US has ever seen. Those of us who have studied history, specifically US history, know that this can easily go either way. This “cult of personality” is very dangerous and may prove too much. Frankly, I’ve been so surprised at the people I know who don’t see the cult for what it is…. Keep speaking the truth Steven, so we might win.
In blue Philadelphia, my wife’s mail-in ballot was “Returned Undeliverable.” I received mine at the same address. We went to City Hall Elections Office and got her a new ballot. We were told that other Democrats had the same problem. Some received ballots with the envelopes already sealed. Not trusting USPS, we took our ballots to an Official Drop Box. It was designated Not in Service, and it appeared that someone had tried to pry it open. Voters should be aware of criminal election interference here and in all cities and towns, making every attempt to have their ballots received in time to be counted!
Cautiously optimistic… but having just spent time with folks I care about who lean R/DT, the cloud of disinformation in which they live shows me that the risk remains…. The other side has succeeded in “flooding the zone with s#*t.” And it is dangerous to our Republic.
I trust women to come out to stop him. I trust young people that they want something different. I think that the polls are being manipulated to raise my blood pressure. But I am optimistic that we will have a blue wave. I am buying treats to celebrate when Tom Cruz loses in Texas...
and men & fathers, brothers, grandfathers, uncles and male friends of all women. We need men to stand with us as well and I truly believe they are there.
It’s white men that worry me. I’m one, but as you say, a friend of women and young people. I so hope you are right. Thanks, John Crane. I’m gonna have another coffee and bask for a moment in your positivity.
It really shouldn't be close at all. There is NO choice for reasonable people. An articulate, intelligent, conscientious, energetic, successful person with a vision for moving America forward in excellent ways VS. a convicted felon who instigated a lethal insurrection against the country/Constitution he took an oath to protect as well as defying the espionage act with the theft of top secret documents and who has nothing to offer America except cozying up to dictators, advancement of white supremacy, division and tax cuts for the very wealthy.
During Democrats, lower and middle class increase standard of living. During Republicans, billionaires become richer and lower and middle class Americans needs are ignored. That's a fact!
Imagine wearing these kinds of shirts in a red state 👇 🤣
teespring.com/stores/libtees-2
Kamala is the ONLY choice. She will preserve our Democracy.
Vote blue up and down the ballot!
Amen sister!
Yes!!!!!
Cruz MUST lose. Time for Texas to vote for an actual AUTHENTIC TEXAN for a change!
Or Ted cruz. Lol
if they can keep saying Ka-MA-la, we can call him Tom. Or Tim. Or Tad. Or Tate.
Call him his birth name: Rafael.
I will be working to stop Trump. However I have no confidence that he will lose this election. John, my blood pressure is sufficiently high enough to cover both of us. Insofar as Ted Cruz is concerned there are too many of my fellow Texans who are so completely brainwashed that his quest to be able to physically “roll in the dough” will likely come to fruition.
🤞🏻🤞🏻🤞🏻…💙
BlueJOY
Ted I think you mean. Tom Cruise would never lose in Texas!!!
I am deeply concerned that a good portion of the electorate is so infected with nativism, sexism and racism that they want to return an insurrectionist and convicted felon to office. I keep getting these messages from the Harris campaign about how they’re being outspent in key states. By any logical measure, Trump should be toast, but I think a good portion of the electorate has become unhinged from logic. I don’t know why they’re so frustrated, given that inflation has dropped to pre-pandemic levels and the current economic stats are way better than the Morning in America years. Maybe they feel unsettled but it’s sickening they would opt for someone who would make it infinitely worse. I’m not gonna breathe easy until Harris wins and gets sworn into office and the putative insurrectionists are rendered harmless.
The basic issue is the electoral college. Gives outsize power to an angry minority who hates migrants, is suspicious of the rest of the country, and who thinks the govt is out to get them. Again. Hillary won the popular vote. We're being controlled by a unhinged radical minority re the Presidency.
Yes, the EC is a problem. On the other hand, I think it is a disservice to the Harris campaign for there to be so much emphasis on comparing it to HRC. Hillary’s campaign failed to invest in swing states, the ‘blue wall’. Her campaign took them for granted even though many of those voters blamed NAFTA for their troubles. The campaign skipped over the usual early activities on the ground relying on her name recognition and it being a ‘base turnout’ election. Ignored labor unions & reports percolating up from the field that support was fading. Ex: SEIU began sending their workers assigned in Iowa (where there wasn’t a snowball’s chance of carrying the state) to Michigan. It was told to keep them in IA to fool the trump campaign into spending $$ there. (It was lost by almost 10 points. I suspect the trump campaign had its own polling.) Some surrogates popular in Mich were not allowed to campaign there. It was November when Obama was brought in.
Slate breaks down the numbers.
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2016/12/the-myth-of-the-rust-belt-revolt.html
The 2 campaigns resemble one another because at the top of the Dem ticket we have a woman. The electorate has changed over the past 8-9 years. The DNC has changed. Harris is a different candidate.
I have a lot of optimism because the Harris campaign is covering the bases. It inherited a ground game and legal preparations & has built on it. The changes in strategy have modernized the campaign. She has enthusiasm on her side which seems to scare trump. We can see it reflected in trump’s rhetoric - darker and more incoherent.
Absolutely on point Ann! Your recounting of the failures in 2016 is accurate as well. We begged them to step it up in Wisconsin etc but “the Five” as we called them just refused. Harris’ campaign is just the opposite and the polls ignore 18s to 29s because they can’t reach them. Those voters plus women nationwide recognize the dangers of a nationwide abortion ban and will vote overwhelmingly as well as Black voters who are being motivated by the Divine Nine! Thank you for your commitment! Please donate now to www.TurnUp.com!
Thanks. 18-21 also have no voting record in presidential elections and 18-19 year olds didn’t vote in the midterms. IOW, they can’t be considered “likely” voters which are typically the more reliable type of polling. In atypical elections like we have these days pollsters are guessing who will vote. So add in the difficulty in reaching young people.
Then there is the newer world of betting on elections. After Nate Silver’s bizarrely wrong election predictions in the midterm he left 538 to go out on his own but is still called a ‘guru’. It appears he has more than a small incentive to manipulate polling results.
Polymarket is a gambling site whose startup had a big infusion of $$ from Peter Thiel:
—“Feels like it should be a bigger deal that Nate Silver is employed by Polymarket, a site that allows you to bet on political outcomes, and also runs a “prediction model” that has the ability to directly affect betting behavior,” journalist Brett Meiselas on X.—
Lots of the younger people have registered to vote in the past couple of elections. So, they are watching.
Yes, they may be watching. It’s anybody’s guess if they will be motivated to vote. They have no track record & historically have high nonvoter rates. In that age group, there’s very little memory of DJT’s administration or how abnormal it was. It makes the ground game even more important. We can hope they are in ‘swing states’ and that if they took the trouble to register will also vote.
Sorry I meant to write www.TurnUp.US
Link is not good.
sorry the correct link is www.TurnUp.US
Thanks!
The popular vote will probably be for KH. But it probably won't electl her.
Everyone knows this. Nobody seems to know how to overcome this problem.
Your thinking is like mine. Read on.
Winner take all and somehow diverting the idea that the Electoral is a backstop to electing incompetent individuals, like Trump. I think it is rather like us being frogs in boiling water.
The basic issue might still be racism.
Or misogyny
Or both
Change “might” to “Is”
My blood pressure is elevated to at the thought of Trump in the WH. How it can be so close is mind boggling. I wouldn’t need to see one add or press conference to know that I would vote for Harris! Anything to keep Trump out of office! It doesn’t even matter about policy at this point!! I would hate to see what our country oils look like should be get in. I think Harris will win and I hope it is a landslide but what scares means keeps me awake at night is the cheating and voter suppression and intimidation that will take place. If anyone can seriously listen to trump at his rallies and his interviews and think he’s fit to lead this country is a bigger fool than I ever thought possible!
Regarding inflation, they want prices to return to pre-pandemic levels. The ‘concept’ the trump campaign pushes as proof the economy isn’t improving. My question remains: How much are they willing to give up for the promise of cheaper eggs?
Yes, one issue voters are a problem.
I'm on a fixed income so inflation cooling only means prices won't get worse. That is why some are still complaining but contrary to what I read in the media Harris has articulated plans to deal with price gouging and help the middle class. T has nothing except lowering taxes on the wealthy ... his plan raised my taxes ... tariffs that will be passed along to consumers, and deporting immigrants which will increase costs as well. I remember fruit rotting during his last term and some produce being scarce until they imported the items from South America.
I'm concerned about recent polls but feel like somethings fishy. Why would his numbers increase now? It makes no sense. I'm worried but I believe there's a silent majority that will come out for Harris!
I think it's more than just being unsettled. There's a significant portion of voters who are trying to live in an alternate reality. So whenever something happens that forces reality into their consciousness (like a hurricane), it's got to be a conspiracy. "They" are trying to get us.
I'm not optimistic at all about the election. Even if VP Harris gets elected, Congress is almost certain to be divided, and we'll end up in a morass similar to the one we suffer now. And if she is not elected, that morass will be quicksand.
I agree with your assessment of the situation. I just can’t take it anymore. I don’t have confidence in the disaffected to do the right thing and vote against a Fascist government. Republican voters have a long history with voting against their best interests and I think that’s why pundits keep saying this election is very close.
Fox “news” has been poisoning their minds for just this moment
I have to believe MAGAs are in thrall to Trump and his hateful message. Logic has never really worked over the years.
I can’t fathom a Trump win. The questions are: What do we do if Trump DOES win? How do we continue on with our lives knowing that this mentally ill and cognitively impaired person is in the most powerful position in the world? How do we continue on knowing that the people he will surround himself with are more fanatical than he? How can we go on knowing that we may never be able to vote again and that we will become the victims of a Christian Nationalist regime? How do we go about our everyday lives knowing that each day can mean another freedom may be lost, and/or subject to the whims of a vengeful dictator? I do not believe that Trump will be a dictator ON Day One…he will be a dictator FROM Day One. I find myself wondering how the people of Russian and North Korea go about their daily lives with any joy at all.
My husband was a toddler in occupied France during WWII, when he father was part of the French Resistance…and yet he remembers his folks telling him not to say who was coming to the house to visit. Neighbors spied on neighbors, and sometimes settled grudges by telling the Nazis that their neighbors were anti-German. That’s how it was.
Alan Lichtman, who wrote, “The Keys to the White House” and who correctly predicted 9 out of 10 presidential elections (he missed Bush V Gore because the Supreme Court decided the election) has said that Kamala Harris will win this election. I hope and pray he will be right one more time.
Please be confident that this campaign is far better run and executed than both 2016 and 2020 yet we won the popular vote in both years! He is so terrified of the consequences to him criminally when he loses that while he is a lunatic at this point, he will only grow worse in the next weeks so the next insurrection will become more apparent and more dangerous even before Nov5! That will seal his defeat and Joe will handle the consequences of the insurrection! Big differences from Jan6!
I share your fears and hope Harris wins because those who would still vote for someone like Trump have no idea what it means to live in a dictatorship like Russia or North Korea. End of press freedom, probably the Supreme Court ( no loss there), loss of bodily autonomy and the right to vote for more than one party. The list goes on and on.
You’ve got Myra;everything is on the line!
I try to be optimistic but I am terrified. I find it unbelievable that half of the American voters can vote for such a despicable, incompetent, dangerous man. I literally cannot sleep due to anxiety.
One has to wonder how much Russia has to do with our politics..the underbelly of it.
Me too and my poor stomach has been upset for weeks. I want it all to end with the only sane solution- a democratic government
I am hopeful! This is not 2016. I awoke that morning and told my husband, "This feels like Christmas morning." We know how that turned out. Harris and Walz are running a brilliant campaign. Women, young voters and mentally stable men will support her.
We hope that good will win over evil.
I am hopeful.
In spite of the main media's alarming lying and dogged following of the dog whistle for so long. It is the truth that is lying beneath that has captured the prominent Republicans and others. There is Kamala's innovative campaigning on platforms that, honestly, I am unaware of, but which speaks of a deep strategy to win.
I have been vacationing for the first time in 6 years, in Michigan's Upper Peninsula. There are many Trump signs in this sparsely populated land that used to tilt Democratic because of mines and unions and now does not. But along the road...Harris-Trump signs!
I think there are voters not captured by the pollsters who do not seem to have caught up with the changes in our electorate and modes of communication. I hope that many pollsters and the MSM will have egg on their faces.
I am hopeful, and yes, optimistic, that it will be President Harris. I am hopeful that truth will prevail.
Thank you, Steven, for doing your part in amplifying truth.
I was also in the UP this fall. Saw many more Harris/Walz and Slotkin signs. Was so nice to see. And hopeful.
I don't put much stock in polls until I know the following:
Who paid for it?
Where was it done?
How many people did they poll?
What questions were asked?
Whom did they ask?
Call me suspicious or paranoid, but I wouldn't put it beyond Trump, MAGAts, the GOP, Musk, Putin, or Corporate Media to be screwing with our heads this late in the game to make us think Trump is doing so well the needle has barely moved for Harris. I call BS.
Yes, polling can be misleading including how questions are asked & the margin of error. It’s a snapshot and we don’t know the limits of the lens. The midterms come to mind with its last minute flurry of trumpy false polling.
I saw a note on substack dissecting polling results by someone posing as very knowledgeable about data. I pointed out pollsters have their own biases and when there are unknown incentives, like monetary incentive as with Nate Silver, they can be deliberately skewed. (https://www.salon.com/2024/09/06/nate-silver-faces-backlash-for-pro-model-skewing/ )
He responded:
• “Do polls reflect public opinion? Yes, with the caveat that there is indeterminate levels of bias on the part of the pollster which will influence the results.“
Closed his lengthy lecture with …
• “And by pushing poll data that shows Trump doing well, we can counter efforts to move the public opinion needle towards Kamala Harris.“
Pick your poll. Personally I tend to believe polling more on attitudes toward candidates. Harris has done well with that. Getting those votes in the ballot box is the crucial part.
Rasmussen leans toward the conservative end of the spectrum.
https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-surges-ahead-donald-trump-new-national-poll-1967821
I am trying to be optimistic, but I remember feeling both incredulous and sick in 2016. We became active in our local Democratic Party after the disaster of 2016, and continue to support it and its candidates.
We donate to Democratic campaigns up and down the ballot, and help with mailings, though we are not ones to participate in canvassing, especially in this very rural, red (unfortunately) area. I'm not sure how safe that would be.
There are a few Harris/Walz signs around, but also reports of them being stolen or vandalized. The irony of this seems to be lost on the party of 'law and order' that has as its candidate a convicted felon (x 34).
When we took our completed mail-in ballots to our courthouse, there was a man ahead of us who asked the clerk how "illegal immigrants" (his words) were being prevented from voting. She patiently explained the process of needing a valid driver's license or Social Security number. He replied that these could be faked and asked his question a second time. She suggested that he call the state, after which he muttered to himself, seemingly dissatisfied, and marched out -- another Fox/OAN/Newsmax watcher, evidently. So that seems to be the pervasive mindset around here.
I'm hoping that Democratic support in this area is just keeping a low profile. But I am not sleeping well. We won't survive another four years of tffg, and even if he eventually goes away, the forces that have supported him will not.
How many Republicans voted for Biden last election? Few
How many Republicans will vote for Harris this election? Many
My experience with polls over the last 53 years of voting? Wrong most of the time
And yes we are learning the power of populism in an era of instant communication.
If you are not involved in local government, get involved. Local is the root of democracy.
Harris will win!
Anxious. Not optimistic. Hoping to be proved wrong.
Feel exactly the same.
My state has Amendment 3 on the ballot to make abortion legal in Missouri. There is a strong PAC with deep pockets (including the KC Chiefs owner and possibly the St. Louis Archdiocese) funding tons of signs and banners to vote No. I can’t drive a mile in east Central Missouri without seeing one of these. This group is also funding tracts that are getting passed out IN CHURCHES that include disinformation. Letters to the Editor in the paper are nasty. There is a growing progressive group trying to counteract, but it’s tough to not get a sick feeling seeing all the Trump and No to 3 signs. I plan to either spend the day Election Day either hanging at the Botanical Gardens or the zoo in St. Louis, then a movie for my mental preservation. I’ve done postcards, LTE, signs, Post-Its, and wearing shirts, but I am easily stressed by nature, and ugly “Christianity” has my blood pressure shooting high. As a progressive Christian, I don’t know how much fight I have left.
I KNOW! It’s crazy….and as a Jew, it’s even worse. Nazi signs on the overpass at Mason and 40. It’s so so scary!
That was horrible. I’m so sorry you had to experience that.
There are a lot of horrible people out there. That happened here too.
If there was a care button to choose from, I would have. Do you read Jess Piper's Substack? She's from Missouri. Crossing my fingers that it passes. Wish we had the choice to vote for it in Iowa.
Oh, yes! I’ve met her! We connected thru Moms Demand Action
I’m with you! I plan to vote and be out of the country by Election Day! Hopefully I’ll be able to come back!
I am optimistic BUT the polls turn my stomach. I remind myself every time I see the hysterical headlines of the "polls say tfg is close etc etc" As I have said countless times.. who truly answers/responds to these polls? My phone scans all calls & it won't ring if it doesn't recognize the number. I have countless times tried to fill out the polls on-line and when I get to the end I must "pay" to be counted. Proving my theory they are only in it for the money & clicks. DNC just now texted/emailed me stating I didn't finish the poll... seriously?
I'm with you. I block them all now. The corporate media can't be trusted. If she wins we need congress too or nothing will get done. Then idiots complain that nothing gets done as they vote away what is in their best interests down ballot. We have become a soft country with the baggage of ignorance on our backs.
They have not passed the life saving bills needed without the Democrats to push it forward. We must have Congress, which is as important as the presidential race. Vote Dem down the entire ticket, and furthermore how is our government allowing Trump to interfere with Congress, is that not a crime also?
Yes I feel the same way. I don’t answer the emails asking who I’m voting for because 1) I don’t want my email out there to thousands who this polling site will sell it too and 2) they always ask for money. I e donated more this election than I ever have in the past and the emails constantly asking for more gets really tiresome!
Those fundraiser emails pretending to be serious polls are annoying.
I’m starting to get similar ones from the trump campaign — and one from Cruz begging for $$. Now that is the mark of true desperation. They must be too cheap to get voter registration lists & rely on zip codes or random email lists from who knows where.
I get the anxiety type, queasy feeling in my belly when I move from the here and now and think about electing day. No matter how much faith I have in our candidates, nothing about this election, the Republican candidates, or the republican voters is normal. The Republican Party has never been more evil.
I may be naively optimistic, I dream of a HUGE BLUE WAVE!!! On good days I see it clearly. On not so good days, I am fearful. The world is watching us. They are hopeful but not naive. They have seen dictators before. This election is more important than any event the US has ever seen. Those of us who have studied history, specifically US history, know that this can easily go either way. This “cult of personality” is very dangerous and may prove too much. Frankly, I’ve been so surprised at the people I know who don’t see the cult for what it is…. Keep speaking the truth Steven, so we might win.
In blue Philadelphia, my wife’s mail-in ballot was “Returned Undeliverable.” I received mine at the same address. We went to City Hall Elections Office and got her a new ballot. We were told that other Democrats had the same problem. Some received ballots with the envelopes already sealed. Not trusting USPS, we took our ballots to an Official Drop Box. It was designated Not in Service, and it appeared that someone had tried to pry it open. Voters should be aware of criminal election interference here and in all cities and towns, making every attempt to have their ballots received in time to be counted!
Take photos and send this stuff out there. Remember when all the mailboxes disappeared?
Wow! The cheating has begun! USPS under DeJoy-less sadly may no longer be reliable and trustworthy despite the motto that guided them for so long!
Cautiously optimistic… but having just spent time with folks I care about who lean R/DT, the cloud of disinformation in which they live shows me that the risk remains…. The other side has succeeded in “flooding the zone with s#*t.” And it is dangerous to our Republic.