Heeding the Warnings

We must avoid normalcy bias, expand our imagination, and both recognize and confront the fascistic danger of the Trump regime

(Photo by jkaufmann88 via Getty Images)

Those of us committed to saving our democracy share the same task: To expand the awareness of people we know and meet about the dangers in our midst. For all of us who’ve been paying attention to the dismantling of our democracy and the cruel, arrogant and reckless way this has been happening, it seems almost ridiculous that we need to explain this.

But we’re in this fateful moment because far too many Americans failed to grasp what could happen and what was at stake. And, sadly, it seems far too many still fail to recognize that there is a five-alarm fire that could soon burn out of control, making dousing it and repairing the destruction an increasingly tall order.

Why are we facing this dilemma? Part of the reason stems from normalcy bias which, as summarized by The Decision Lab, “describes our tendency to underestimate the possibility of disaster and believe that life will continue as normal, even in the face of significant threats or crises.”

Think how often you hear about people who lost their lives because they refused to leave before a major hurricane or other natural disaster wreaked havoc; they may have falsely assumed they were safer staying in their home or ignored warnings that they believed were overstated.

In 2016, people said Donald Trump wouldn’t get the Republican nomination. Then they said he wouldn’t beat Hillary Clinton. When he won, many doubted he would be that bad, despite everything he said and promised to do.

That same tendency—to underestimate the potential for disaster—facilitated his reelection in 2024; it made it easier for many voters to ignore the warnings of his dictatorial ambitions or minimize his hateful threats of retribution, mass deportation and terminating the Constitution.

It’s also true, of course, that many voters—enough to elect Trump—were cut off from such warnings or persuaded to disbelieve them by Fox News, Newsmax, Elon Musk’s X and a host of hateful propagandists like Tucker Carlson. You may recall a survey soon after the election which found that voters who paid a great deal of attention to political news were eight percent more likely to vote for Kamala Harris than those who paid no attention who were 15 percent more likely to vote for Trump. Democrats failed to adequately penetrate both the right-wing information ecosystem and other key non-political spaces.

But put aside the 77 million-plus who voted for Trump. We would be facing an utterly different reality if even a small slice of the 89 million Americans who were eligible to vote—yet didn’t—had been sufficiently motivated to do their part and help ward off disaster.

And it’s not like the warnings were insufficiently pointed. Recall Vice President Kamala Harris’ rally in Washington, D.C. on October 30 that drew a crowd estimated at 75,000 people. “We know who Donald Trump is,” Harris said as the election neared. “This is someone who is unstable, obsessed with revenge, consumed with grievance and out for unchecked power.”

To assess the part I played in this, I returned to the first essay I wrote that raised the specter of fascist rule if Trump were to retake the levers of power and the role that Project 2025 was playing in creating the conditions for it. That was on July 23, 2023, in an essay titled “Aiming for Dictatorship.” The subtitle read: “While Trump hungers for retribution and extremist Republicans mock successes of modern liberal government, a network of right-wing groups plot a fascist takeover with an all-powerful U.S. president.”

It was a reminder of how knowable the stakes already were. Drawing on strong reporting from The New York Times, I summarized what a potential second Trump term portended: “This plot is committed to concentrating power in the hands of the president by ending liberal government and the independence of the Department of Justice, the civil service and other federal agencies that have been largely protected (by law or tradition) from presidential political interference.”

I noted that many people were struggling to understand why Trump continued to get support not only from a cultist base, but also from Republican leadership and their policy professionals. That’s why the threat of Project 2025 and their desire to dismantle liberal government needed to be taken with utmost seriousness. I wrote:

They don’t care that he’s a criminal. They don’t care if he’s a convicted sexual abuser or rapist. They don’t care if he’s never read the Bible or espouses violence. They don’t believe in government to make lives better. They reject democracy and the principles of equality.

They want power and they’ll pursue it by any means necessary to get it and keep it. Their plan for 2025 and another term makes clear why so many Republicans have looked away from every desecration and degradation and violation committed by Trump.

Between the 77 million-plus voters who chose Trump and the 89 million who chose to ignore the whole damned thing despite being eligible to vote, surely there was a sliver that heard the warnings but chose not to heed them. They exemplified normalcy bias.

But beyond this bias, we are suffering from a failure of imagination—to think ahead about what could happen and respond accordingly. How else can we explain the indifference of too many Americans, despite the daily and illegal arson being committed by Trump and his sycophants and miscreants?

How many, for example, see the kidnapping and removal of migrants without due process and fail to recognize that this practice could soon extend to a burgeoning population of American citizens? How many take seriously the stated threat to suspend habeas corpus which requires a person under arrest be brought before a judge or into court?

Last week On Tyranny author Timothy Snyder warned that the second 100 days of the Trump regime could entail a dangerous escalation that includes some kind of terrorist attack. Imagining this can be hard; it’s understandable to ignore such a warning since it’s not yet true, it’s unpleasant to consider—and yes, it may not happen.

But it’s worth listening to what this historian of authoritarian regimes envisions—a warning layered with advice on how to prepare and how to respond. “I think it’s very important to expect there will now be exogenous surprises,” he said in a short video, including the “bottom falling out” of the economy because of the tariffs, “a major disruption” within the U.S. or even some kind of terrorist attack.

“Don’t fall for language about extremism or terrorism,” Snyder urged if it happens. He also emphasized the importance of staying calm, being active and sticking together. “Be aware that this is the pretext that will be used to push things further…use it as an opportunity to hold the people responsible who should be taking responsibility.”

This mirrors what he said in one of the final chapters of his short book that offers lessons to prepare, one entitled “Be calm when the unthinkable arrives.” His thinking draws on the Reichstag Fire staged by Hitler and the Nazis in 1933.

Snyder writes:

Modern tyranny is terror management. When the terrorist attack comes, remember that authoritarians exploit such events in order to consolidate power. The sudden disaster that requires the end of checks and balances, the dissolution of opposition parties, the suspension of freedom of expression, the right to a fair trial, and so on, is the oldest trick in the Hitlerian book. Do not fall for it.

As he notes in a Substack piece published last month about the possibility of such an attack, “The people in the White House have no governing skills, but they do have entertainment skills. They will seek to transform themselves from the villains of the story to the heroes, and in the process bring down the republic.”

None of us know if such an attack will happen. But I agree with Snyder that it’s important to expand our imaginations and be prepared if it does. That means not falling victim to normalcy bias.

Yes, millions of Americans failed to grasp the potential for disaster and crisis if Donald Trump were to occupy the White House again. But rather than look backward and rue that misfortune, let’s look forward and do what we can.

Warn the people we know. Warn the people we meet. Reach out on social media and email to our friends and communities. Contact our elected officials. Participate in public demonstrations and bring friends with us.

Let them all know this is an emergency—no time for business as usual and old ways of doing things. There’s an arsonist in the White House aggressively seeking to end our constitutional republic, free speech and the rule of law. And let’s not lose sight of our collective power to ensure that the Trump regime’s desired trajectory is not inevitable.

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One other note: I was deeply saddened yesterday to hear that Joe Biden has been diagnosed with an aggressive form of prostate cancer that has metastasized to his bones. Like many of you, I’ve been thinking about him in the context of the new book by CNN’s Jake Tapper, which blames Biden for Trump’s return.

Yes, there are reasons to question Biden’s decision to run again and stay in the race so long. But this is the last conversation we need right now. This is what I’ve shared on various social media: “Sure, let’s dissect the mental and physical acuity of the former president who sought to make lives in America better while minimizing the reality of a deranged arsonist dismantling the country we’ve known and loved. What a waste of precious time. What a failure to meet this moment.”

Here’s hoping that President Biden, a good and decent man, recovers from this dreaded disease.

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