How Optimistic Are You?

A Saturday Prompt about polling and the midterms

(Photo by Joseph Prezioso/AFP via Getty Images)

Let’s look at where things stand with just three days until election day on Tuesday. Over 50 million Americans have already voted, with Democrats holding a turnout advantage of 43.4 percent to 31.6 percent for the Republicans.

Emerson College’s final national survey finds that the generic Democratic candidate possesses a commanding lead over the Republican, 52 percent to 42 percent.

Every single one of more than a dozen polls from the last week, gathered by The New York Times, predicts Democrats taking back Congress. At least four of these polls declare a double-digit Democratic advantage.

As of yesterday, polling expert Nate Silver forecasts that Democrats have a 95.8 percent chance of retaking the House and a 78.3 percent chance of gaining control of the Senate. He predicts that Democrats could gain 26 House seats (a 241 total) and six Senate seats (a 53 total). He comes up with his data by analyzing a wide variety of polls and performing some 40,000 simulations.

Looking at several key Senate races, Silver’s model shows Democrats leading in Texas (James Talarico up by 2.5 points), Ohio (Sherrod Brown up by 3 points), Alaska (Mary Peltola up by 3.6 points) and Maine (Troy Jackson up by 2.4 points). The Emerson College poll shows that, in ruby red Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton is leading by 4 points.

Each of these are reasons to be optimistic. And yet, each of these is close enough within the margin of error to question whether the pollsters have got it right this cycle.

Are the many predictions of a huge blue wave—including my own—right? Could Elon Musk’s flood of half a billion dollars pumped into races, the cacophony of negative ads, the tribal instinct to vote for one party no matter what and the Trump regime’s sabotage surprise us? Must we remember the shattering election nights when Hillary Clinton lost in 2016 and Kamala Harris lost in 2024, making us doubt pollsters for evermore?

I am not trying to frighten you. I don’t think any of this is sufficient to dull the widespread fury roiling the country and that will be represented at the ballot box.

And, to be sure, all the trends point in the Democrats’ direction, including Donald Trump’s record low approval ratings. The data consistently favors Democrats in all the top issues, including affordability and corruption in government. Gas prices are not coming down before Tuesday. Two-thirds of Americans say the country is on the wrong track, a typically reliable barometer of voter sentiment and behavior.

So while this story is about the midterm polls in these last few days before Nov. 3, I’m also polling (in an unscientific way) you dear readers. Because we have plenty to be optimistic about…and yet there is always a reason to worry. Let’s acknowledge the wisdom of baseball legend Yogi Berra: “It ain’t over ‘til it’s over.”

So: How optimistic are you about a Democratic takeover? Are you expecting a blue wave or even a blue tsunami? Or are you more worried that the pollsters have gotten it wrong again and—worst-case scenario—the Republicans will hold onto the majority in the Senate and maybe even the House? Finally, if the Democrats win both chambers, how are you planning to celebrate?

As always, I look forward to reading your observations and the opportunity for the America, America community to hear from each other. Please do be respectful in your remarks. Trolling will not be tolerated.

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