I too believe in the Harris/Walz ticket, and also think they will win in a landslide. The polls are so messed up by slanted polls financed by GOP organizations in order to make the election appear to be closer than it is.
Women are exceedingly angry about the Dobbs decision, and even the wives of tfg’s voters will vote for Democrats in the privacy of the polling booth.
There are still dirty tricks that the Republicans will try after they lose, but I would hope that good overcomes evil in the final analysis.
I too am optimistic. I remember the dread & fear of November 8th & then the 9th, 2016. I was a fairly freshly retired civil servant so it was the first time in 26 years I could actively & loudly state my feelings towards politics. I’m optimistic this year that the polls are wrong, as the main stream media has been hyping everything he does as good instead of how awful & horrible it is. Plus, he & the Republican Congressional members have under estimated the 168.5 million woman in this country. We ARE NOT going back. We should not behaving to fight these people who are taking away our rights again. My mother, sisters, aunts, & others fought for those rights 50+ years ago. Now I’m having to fight for me, my daughters, & granddaughters to keep them. Onward & forward we will go. Never backwards. NEVER.
I am an optimistic as well and my wife and I cast our votes yesterday at our kitchen table and we will take them to our local election office today and cast our votes. I will remain optimistic until I'm told otherwise. I also believe the longer Trump has, 14 days before the election and the more he speaks the more he will drive away his voters, not all, but enough.
Your words written in 2016 capture as no other has what I experienced then. I want to be optimistic now.
but something happened to me then but that simply broke something inside of me and while I have periods of hope and optimism, I no longer have your faith that Americans will do the right thing in the coming election. We should see signs of a "blue wave" the likes of which we have never seen and that just isn't happening. I cannot find a single rational reason why anyone would cast of vote for Trump and yet millions will. MILLIONS! I'll try to hold on to a little of your optimism with the prayer I wake up on Nov 6th with a new-found belief in my fellow citizens. I'm waiting on the champagne.
I agree. It isn’t time for champagne. But voting is not what we might consider rational decision for many people. It’s often colored by habit and emotions (especially fear & anger). That’s why political ads appeal to emotions.
Pollsters are guessing at who will turn out to vote and adjust their polling samples to match. A margin of error of 3 could be 3 points down or 3 points up — a range of 6%. Internal polling campaigns use which isn’t public tends to be more accurate.
DJT has a lot more on the line this time. From his actions and words it appears that once again his own polling doesn’t look so good. Unlike Biden and then Harris, he didn’t build a ground game to get votes to the polls so the campaign is relying on mostly independent organizations that don’t coordinate. The Dems legal teams geared up early, partnered with Marc Elias and have been very busy winning.
So while it’s not time to celebrate, I see a lot of reasons for optimism.
NPR had one where the journalist asked various people about the election. Most said that they just hoped it would be over soon: we are exhausted with the deluge of false misinformation.
Me, too. Always believed that the will of the American people would prevail. But, I never thought there would be so many in favor of this man and his autocratic/dictatorship inclinations.
In 2015 when Trump was elected for 2016 I cried and had a sick feeling in my stomach that has never gone away! I was and am frightened for anyone the white supremacists deem the enemy. I am trying to be optimistic but I am still afraid of the dirty tricks on the right!! Your article gives me hope that will stay with me. Thank you !!
God, I hope you’re right. A former optimist who believed in people, I have been a pessimist since Trump won and half the country became unrecognizable.
Thank you for expressing what many of us are feeling. I do think you are right. I have been helping with postcards at my local Dems office. The energy is palpable. I see people from my community that I had no idea they were Democrats coming in to help or for signs. Last Monday’s Progressive Democratic Women’s Caucus meeting exceeded our meeting space limitations. When I approached a neighbor about voting, she told me she likes my Harris signs. She and her son will be voting. I waited until ten days ago to put out my Harris signs because the last presidential election I went through seven signs due to theft. This cycle no one has touched them. We are going to win this!
If "The Polls" are as wrong as we feel they are, will the media ignore them next time around? Nah. Polls are an easy crutch for journalism hacks to write about, and since they change constantly, those stories write themselves. Give them no time. Ignore-ance is bliss.
Thanks Steven for your shot of enthusiasm today. I’m incredibly tired of this whole situation with corporate media failing us and the upside down world of the Trump/Vance. America needs to get back on track with decency and honor especially the corporate media. I will hold them accountable for their lies and corruption along with the GOP who have sold their souls to a despicable despot.
We cannot go back so stop looking back! We have a skilled and great candidate, and vote like your life depends on it! Trump must not win or return to the WH! That we know so if you have not voted, do so! Be confident!
Given the bias of many last minute polls and the margins of error we have no idea how accurate the polls are. Pollsters say they have a margins of error 3-4.5 points. That’s a 6-9 point spread. We don’t know whether the polls are getting the correct mix of voters. Are there so many “silent trump voters” this time? What will younger voters do? Now there are questions about anonymous crypto betters in the (European) Polymarket manipulating the odds. (Nate Silver is a consultant for it.) If all was going smoothly for the DJT, he wouldn’t have a meltdown every day; flail at so-called enemies within. The campaign wouldn’t pretend transgender care in prisons didn’t happen on his watch.
Here are some differences we can evaluate for ourselves between the campaigns (while keeping in mind, in 2016 and 2020 DJT’s internal polling said he would lose).
• Harris has a well funded, well organized professional ground game to get out the vote (GOTV).
•• Trump has a hodgepodge of independent organizations & volunteers. Musk’s operation has a lot of “suspicious” entries. IOW, paid workers faking 25% their work.
•• Musk upped his registered voter, agree to vote for trump petition lottery to $1M per day.
• Harris speaks in communities about how she as president would built them up.
•• Trump is insulting voters & communities wherever he goes - no attempt to persuade voters.
•• His Detroit rally was (again) small.
• National unions that endorsed Harris will turn out their members & are working on the ground. They’ve turned out large crowds for her.
•• Random small locals like the Latrobe PA steelworkers have no support from their national unions which made no endorsements.
•• The small motley crew of attendees listening to trump’s crude comments about their hometown hero is the result.
Slaves waited for the first 75 years of our nation’s history before they were supposedly emancipated via a presidential proclamation. And then then waited another century before another president signed a law that supposedly brought them equal to whites.
We all know how whell that’s gone over the last half century.
So suppose Trump loses next month. He will still have been supported by tens of millions of Americans. Likely almost as many as those who opposed him.
How do we in that small majority deal with fellow citizens who were motivated to vote for, as you put it so well, a “felonious malignant narcissist, conman and demagogue?”
As tempting as it might be, we cannot deport them to Hungary or Russia. Or even Greenland. Should we try to ignore them? Some guidance is needed.
The repair and the reintegration will be fraught. But I think an overwhelming defeat will go a long way in motivating a percentage of the cult to reconsider.
With the Dobbs decision, it made me understand that, despite what I thought, women are not truly free citizens. The ERA needs a small update from the Senate to pass and yet it has been sitting there for years. In darker moments I wonder what a US Citizen diaspora will look like--many who can move are.
If it were not for hope, the heart would break, but mine does. I read X, & I feel sick.The lies, conspiracies are there with thousands of likes hearts. I read McConnell called trump a despicable human being, stupid,unfit for office, but he intends to vote for him. trump says despicable filth& laughs. He said Jill, get your fat husband off the couch. Get that fat pig off the couch. Tell him to go vote for trump. I got chewed out at work for making a comment about trump. I know better, but it just came out. The receiver was very mean, overbearing. He might have pulled out his carry on gun & shot me. A woman wore a MAGA hat, another man the shirt with "shot" trump yelling Fight! Sometimes I have to go look out a window for a few minutes to regain composure. One hopes many say allegiance but behind the curtain, they will do the right thing.People buy $100-$200 of groceries,then always complain. I say to them aren't you lucky you can pay for them. They are taken aback with that.Score one for me. I put my Proud Democrat sign out every day, but bring it in at night. Musk still follows me tho I wrote he is bamboozled.???
My outlook: Que Sera,Sera, what ever will be will be. But past evil Hitlers, Mussolinis met ugly ends, doubt met their makers. So too, I know if trump wins, that will also end. As the saying goes, The barn burnt down, but now I can see the moon. 🌙
Thank you for your optimism and encouragement. I absolutely need both. As I have posted on a couple of other Substacks, I am worried especially because I was at the polls on Thursday and Friday working as a “greeter” for a local county commissioner candidate. There were so many MAGA hats and even shirts that said “proudly “ I am voting for the convicted felon. I know I am in a red county of NC but I was still surprised. I honestly thought we had more better angels.
I, too, am an optimist, though that doesn’t mean I’ll sleep much on election night. I live in suburban Seattle, and sincerely believe Washington has one of the most, if not the most, secure “mail in” systems in the country…overseen by the last Republican that I voted for consistently, Kim Wyman, who now has a position in Joe Biden’s administration. This president recognizes talent…I also hope I live to see him get the recognition he deserves. History will, I believe, see him as one of the great presidents. To elections: not everyone might realize that the state has two political “climates”. The liberal areas around Seattle, west of the Cascades is well known; east of the Cascades and the southwest more rural corner of the state are much more conservative, in the best sense of the word (Joe Kent to the contrary). As we moved to “mail in” voting under Kim Wyman, our Secretary of State, she established drop boxes, more in populated areas at first, but more added each year throughout the state. Voters could also put a stamp on their ballot and mail it in. In a sense, that put voters in more rural areas at a disadvantage - for example, in farming areas, it could be a long way to a drop box. And then, a few years ago, the King County Executive announced that the county would put prepaid postage on every King County ballot to make voting easier for those not living near a ballot box. The more conservative parts of the state were outraged, rightfully so; it didn’t take long for Governor Inslee to announce that the state would put prepaid postage on every ballot. In the meantime, the state has continued adding drop boxes every year. I was happy to see these moves which may tend to help all areas of the state equally. In addition, a few years ago, Secretary of State Wyman announced that she wanted every eligible resident of the state to be automatically registered to vote on their 18th birthday. Even better: last year all voters were given the option of tracking their ballot by email. So, I received an email a couple of weeks ago that said my ballot had been mailed, and that I should contact the election office if I hadn’t received it in 5 days. I did. The elections office will send an email to say that my ballot has been received; and then another to say that my signature has been verified, and that my ballot will be counted. My ballot also included a list of the 5 drop boxes close to my home. While I miss the “community” aspect of voting in person, I have come to believe, as I began, that we have a secure, fair system of voting. Sorry to run on so long.
I too believe in the Harris/Walz ticket, and also think they will win in a landslide. The polls are so messed up by slanted polls financed by GOP organizations in order to make the election appear to be closer than it is.
Women are exceedingly angry about the Dobbs decision, and even the wives of tfg’s voters will vote for Democrats in the privacy of the polling booth.
There are still dirty tricks that the Republicans will try after they lose, but I would hope that good overcomes evil in the final analysis.
The polls are rarely right, IMHO.
I too am optimistic. I remember the dread & fear of November 8th & then the 9th, 2016. I was a fairly freshly retired civil servant so it was the first time in 26 years I could actively & loudly state my feelings towards politics. I’m optimistic this year that the polls are wrong, as the main stream media has been hyping everything he does as good instead of how awful & horrible it is. Plus, he & the Republican Congressional members have under estimated the 168.5 million woman in this country. We ARE NOT going back. We should not behaving to fight these people who are taking away our rights again. My mother, sisters, aunts, & others fought for those rights 50+ years ago. Now I’m having to fight for me, my daughters, & granddaughters to keep them. Onward & forward we will go. Never backwards. NEVER.
I am an optimistic as well and my wife and I cast our votes yesterday at our kitchen table and we will take them to our local election office today and cast our votes. I will remain optimistic until I'm told otherwise. I also believe the longer Trump has, 14 days before the election and the more he speaks the more he will drive away his voters, not all, but enough.
Your words written in 2016 capture as no other has what I experienced then. I want to be optimistic now.
but something happened to me then but that simply broke something inside of me and while I have periods of hope and optimism, I no longer have your faith that Americans will do the right thing in the coming election. We should see signs of a "blue wave" the likes of which we have never seen and that just isn't happening. I cannot find a single rational reason why anyone would cast of vote for Trump and yet millions will. MILLIONS! I'll try to hold on to a little of your optimism with the prayer I wake up on Nov 6th with a new-found belief in my fellow citizens. I'm waiting on the champagne.
I agree. It isn’t time for champagne. But voting is not what we might consider rational decision for many people. It’s often colored by habit and emotions (especially fear & anger). That’s why political ads appeal to emotions.
Pollsters are guessing at who will turn out to vote and adjust their polling samples to match. A margin of error of 3 could be 3 points down or 3 points up — a range of 6%. Internal polling campaigns use which isn’t public tends to be more accurate.
DJT has a lot more on the line this time. From his actions and words it appears that once again his own polling doesn’t look so good. Unlike Biden and then Harris, he didn’t build a ground game to get votes to the polls so the campaign is relying on mostly independent organizations that don’t coordinate. The Dems legal teams geared up early, partnered with Marc Elias and have been very busy winning.
So while it’s not time to celebrate, I see a lot of reasons for optimism.
Polls all depend on the questions asked and of whom those questions are asked. They've been wrong on many occasions.
NPR had one where the journalist asked various people about the election. Most said that they just hoped it would be over soon: we are exhausted with the deluge of false misinformation.
Me, too. Always believed that the will of the American people would prevail. But, I never thought there would be so many in favor of this man and his autocratic/dictatorship inclinations.
Wow, reading your emotional journey was much like I was reading my own. I am holding out hope that Harris/Walz wins and working my tail off for it.
Thx. Please do, Deborah!
In 2015 when Trump was elected for 2016 I cried and had a sick feeling in my stomach that has never gone away! I was and am frightened for anyone the white supremacists deem the enemy. I am trying to be optimistic but I am still afraid of the dirty tricks on the right!! Your article gives me hope that will stay with me. Thank you !!
God, I hope you’re right. A former optimist who believed in people, I have been a pessimist since Trump won and half the country became unrecognizable.
Thank you for expressing what many of us are feeling. I do think you are right. I have been helping with postcards at my local Dems office. The energy is palpable. I see people from my community that I had no idea they were Democrats coming in to help or for signs. Last Monday’s Progressive Democratic Women’s Caucus meeting exceeded our meeting space limitations. When I approached a neighbor about voting, she told me she likes my Harris signs. She and her son will be voting. I waited until ten days ago to put out my Harris signs because the last presidential election I went through seven signs due to theft. This cycle no one has touched them. We are going to win this!
If "The Polls" are as wrong as we feel they are, will the media ignore them next time around? Nah. Polls are an easy crutch for journalism hacks to write about, and since they change constantly, those stories write themselves. Give them no time. Ignore-ance is bliss.
Thanks Steven for your shot of enthusiasm today. I’m incredibly tired of this whole situation with corporate media failing us and the upside down world of the Trump/Vance. America needs to get back on track with decency and honor especially the corporate media. I will hold them accountable for their lies and corruption along with the GOP who have sold their souls to a despicable despot.
We cannot go back so stop looking back! We have a skilled and great candidate, and vote like your life depends on it! Trump must not win or return to the WH! That we know so if you have not voted, do so! Be confident!
Given the bias of many last minute polls and the margins of error we have no idea how accurate the polls are. Pollsters say they have a margins of error 3-4.5 points. That’s a 6-9 point spread. We don’t know whether the polls are getting the correct mix of voters. Are there so many “silent trump voters” this time? What will younger voters do? Now there are questions about anonymous crypto betters in the (European) Polymarket manipulating the odds. (Nate Silver is a consultant for it.) If all was going smoothly for the DJT, he wouldn’t have a meltdown every day; flail at so-called enemies within. The campaign wouldn’t pretend transgender care in prisons didn’t happen on his watch.
Here are some differences we can evaluate for ourselves between the campaigns (while keeping in mind, in 2016 and 2020 DJT’s internal polling said he would lose).
• Harris has a well funded, well organized professional ground game to get out the vote (GOTV).
•• Trump has a hodgepodge of independent organizations & volunteers. Musk’s operation has a lot of “suspicious” entries. IOW, paid workers faking 25% their work.
•• Musk upped his registered voter, agree to vote for trump petition lottery to $1M per day.
• Harris speaks in communities about how she as president would built them up.
•• Trump is insulting voters & communities wherever he goes - no attempt to persuade voters.
•• His Detroit rally was (again) small.
• National unions that endorsed Harris will turn out their members & are working on the ground. They’ve turned out large crowds for her.
•• Random small locals like the Latrobe PA steelworkers have no support from their national unions which made no endorsements.
•• The small motley crew of attendees listening to trump’s crude comments about their hometown hero is the result.
Slaves waited for the first 75 years of our nation’s history before they were supposedly emancipated via a presidential proclamation. And then then waited another century before another president signed a law that supposedly brought them equal to whites.
We all know how whell that’s gone over the last half century.
So suppose Trump loses next month. He will still have been supported by tens of millions of Americans. Likely almost as many as those who opposed him.
How do we in that small majority deal with fellow citizens who were motivated to vote for, as you put it so well, a “felonious malignant narcissist, conman and demagogue?”
As tempting as it might be, we cannot deport them to Hungary or Russia. Or even Greenland. Should we try to ignore them? Some guidance is needed.
The repair and the reintegration will be fraught. But I think an overwhelming defeat will go a long way in motivating a percentage of the cult to reconsider.
With the Dobbs decision, it made me understand that, despite what I thought, women are not truly free citizens. The ERA needs a small update from the Senate to pass and yet it has been sitting there for years. In darker moments I wonder what a US Citizen diaspora will look like--many who can move are.
If it were not for hope, the heart would break, but mine does. I read X, & I feel sick.The lies, conspiracies are there with thousands of likes hearts. I read McConnell called trump a despicable human being, stupid,unfit for office, but he intends to vote for him. trump says despicable filth& laughs. He said Jill, get your fat husband off the couch. Get that fat pig off the couch. Tell him to go vote for trump. I got chewed out at work for making a comment about trump. I know better, but it just came out. The receiver was very mean, overbearing. He might have pulled out his carry on gun & shot me. A woman wore a MAGA hat, another man the shirt with "shot" trump yelling Fight! Sometimes I have to go look out a window for a few minutes to regain composure. One hopes many say allegiance but behind the curtain, they will do the right thing.People buy $100-$200 of groceries,then always complain. I say to them aren't you lucky you can pay for them. They are taken aback with that.Score one for me. I put my Proud Democrat sign out every day, but bring it in at night. Musk still follows me tho I wrote he is bamboozled.???
My outlook: Que Sera,Sera, what ever will be will be. But past evil Hitlers, Mussolinis met ugly ends, doubt met their makers. So too, I know if trump wins, that will also end. As the saying goes, The barn burnt down, but now I can see the moon. 🌙
Thank you for your optimism and encouragement. I absolutely need both. As I have posted on a couple of other Substacks, I am worried especially because I was at the polls on Thursday and Friday working as a “greeter” for a local county commissioner candidate. There were so many MAGA hats and even shirts that said “proudly “ I am voting for the convicted felon. I know I am in a red county of NC but I was still surprised. I honestly thought we had more better angels.
That is so scary and sad. There is a retired judge up the street who has the same sign. A JUDGE is proudly voting for a convicted felon!
I, too, am an optimist, though that doesn’t mean I’ll sleep much on election night. I live in suburban Seattle, and sincerely believe Washington has one of the most, if not the most, secure “mail in” systems in the country…overseen by the last Republican that I voted for consistently, Kim Wyman, who now has a position in Joe Biden’s administration. This president recognizes talent…I also hope I live to see him get the recognition he deserves. History will, I believe, see him as one of the great presidents. To elections: not everyone might realize that the state has two political “climates”. The liberal areas around Seattle, west of the Cascades is well known; east of the Cascades and the southwest more rural corner of the state are much more conservative, in the best sense of the word (Joe Kent to the contrary). As we moved to “mail in” voting under Kim Wyman, our Secretary of State, she established drop boxes, more in populated areas at first, but more added each year throughout the state. Voters could also put a stamp on their ballot and mail it in. In a sense, that put voters in more rural areas at a disadvantage - for example, in farming areas, it could be a long way to a drop box. And then, a few years ago, the King County Executive announced that the county would put prepaid postage on every King County ballot to make voting easier for those not living near a ballot box. The more conservative parts of the state were outraged, rightfully so; it didn’t take long for Governor Inslee to announce that the state would put prepaid postage on every ballot. In the meantime, the state has continued adding drop boxes every year. I was happy to see these moves which may tend to help all areas of the state equally. In addition, a few years ago, Secretary of State Wyman announced that she wanted every eligible resident of the state to be automatically registered to vote on their 18th birthday. Even better: last year all voters were given the option of tracking their ballot by email. So, I received an email a couple of weeks ago that said my ballot had been mailed, and that I should contact the election office if I hadn’t received it in 5 days. I did. The elections office will send an email to say that my ballot has been received; and then another to say that my signature has been verified, and that my ballot will be counted. My ballot also included a list of the 5 drop boxes close to my home. While I miss the “community” aspect of voting in person, I have come to believe, as I began, that we have a secure, fair system of voting. Sorry to run on so long.